A few figures for the weekend

I’ve just noticed that I did some analysis at this stage of the league (i.e. after Round 5) two years ago so I thought it might be worthwhile to update this to see how we’re faring out this spring compared to previous years.  In doing so, I’ve extended the analysis back to 2007 so the time series involved stretches to five years, which means that we can see how this first league campaign under James Horan is going compared with the four previous ones under The Politician.

This graphic shows where we stand in terms of points scored and conceded after Round 5 of the NFL in each of the last five years.

What’s immediately obvious is that while the points for and against totals have gone up and down over the years, this is the first year since 2007 where we’ve conceded more than we’ve scored at this stage in the campaign.

The next graphic demonstrates fairly clearly why this is happening.  This one shows goals scored and conceded after Round 5 and it’ll come as no surprise to see that the latter metric has gone through the roof this spring.

What’s interesting from the scoring stats is that compared to this time last year (when we were flying in the league) we’ve scored exactly the same amount after five rounds (i.e. 7-58) but this year we’ve conceded 10-53 versus 5-52 last year.  Goals lose games and all that.

Does any of this matter? Not a huge amount, I reckon.  It’s only a snapshot of where we stand at a certain point in the league and a quick look back over the graphs shows that those years where we’ve been going best at this time of year have also been the ones where we’ve underperformed worst in the summer.

The point is confirmed by this graphic which shows where we stand on points difference after Round 5 compared with the Johnno years.

It’s noteworthy that 2007 and 2010 both stand out in terms of positive performance in this respect and while it may be stretching it a bit to claim that there’s some kind of inverse correlation between points difference now and a good summer campaign, it’s fairly clear that riding high on this stat in spring is no certain harbinger of a productive championship season.  That said, a bit of tight defending over the next few matches wouldn’t go amiss either.

7 thoughts on “A few figures for the weekend

  1. Interesting stats WJ. The championship starts for Mayo in the game v Cork. Win that and relegation fears will ease. Lose that and it will be a straight forward battle with Monaghan for an extended life in the high lane.
    If we go down I fear we will drop further. Anybody think we can beat Kildare, Donegal, Meath, Laois, Tyrone and Derry at the moment?
    James Horan knows what type of team he will have for the championship after 3 FBD and 5 League matches. Now he has to ask them to win two games in the league. Win them and we stay put, lose them and my worst fears are confirmed.
    I have seen us in this spot omany years ago where we needed to win to either survive or qualify for a later stage. Invariably we buckle under the pressure. Lets do things different over the next two matches.

  2. It would be good to see how many new players used versus the previous year, 07 and 10 I believe we stayed with the previous years panel, I think we all said he had to experiment to get this team moving forward and if we just stayed up then it would be a good league, I think now he should use the last 2 games to start picking the team for May in london. Ontheroad , I think we could beat those teams in division 2, none of them are setting the world alight, but I would prefer division 1 if only by the skin of our teeth and a summer to at least last until August

  3. It sounds like we`ll be without Ronan for Sunday,according to Mid West today he took a knock in training I think I heard them say.Any more info out there?

  4. Division 1 is a better place to be as obviously you are playing a better brand of football and against better opposition so (theoritically) you should be the stronger for it. In our case however this has not manifested itself for the subsequent championship enoucnters that followed.

    So Relegation to Div 2 (and maybe even Div 3) might not be such a bad thing for this team either. It could/would lead to a strong demand for change and also might get rid of a lot of dead wood from the current panel.

  5. When John Maughan took over in 1995/1996 we were in Div.3 and hadn”t won a match. In September, 1996 we came within a bounce of a ball to winning the All Ireland.

  6. Division One status is all good and well JPM but has it served us that well when it comes to the championship of late? Not really is the short answer. Funnily enough our most successful period in the championship ( in my lifetime), was when we were coming up from division 3 to division 2 in the league!

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