As you all well know by now, I’m not one to go blowing my own trumpet so it’s getting kinda embarrassing for me, once again, to draw your attention to my lofty standing at the top, the summit, the very pinnacle, like, of the prediction mini-league table. Not just that, hombres, but by only missing out on one prediction last weekend (Sligo, of course – I had a fancy that the Rossies might be up for an upset but I didn’t have the balls to go the whole hog (or should that be sheep?) and include them in my prediction list), my lead at the top has widened to just shy of 50 points. In other words, I might start to become a tad insufferable if this goes on much longer.
The other thing is that, with the rainy season now more than half over, we’re starting to run out of matches. To be precise there are only eleven left, with eight of those set to be played between now and the end of the forthcoming Bank Holiday weekend. Which means that we’re now approaching the business end of things.
I’m not exactly home and hosed yet but I’d say that one of those of us in the top five will end up in the winner’s enclosure this time out. I see that last year’s championship victor, Mortified, is still there in sixth so I’m also keeping an eye on him in case he makes a late dash for the line dish ear.
There are four qualifier matches this weekend and, with the provincial losers having such a poor record against the hard-nosed teams who have waded through the earlier rounds of the backdoor, predicting the winners from these should be a bit easier. Still, Down and Sligo isn’t going to be straightforward and neither will Louth and Dublin. Come to think of it, Kildare and Monaghan could be a close enough tussle too. That leaves Cork as the only sure-fire banker. Until, of course, they meet Kerry again a little further down the line.
Interesting that all the beaten provincial finalists lost today with Limerick the only one coming anyway close. They had the longest gap since losing a provincial final so i wonder is the short turnaround a factor. We know all about this process in Galway as since 2006 we have lost 3 provincial deciders and 3 qualifiers by a point each. This year and last year we lost 2 matches each year by a point with only 6 day and 7 day gaps rerspectively.
It’s interesting alright and it’s obvious that the 6-day turnaround contributed to the way that Monaghan and, in particular, poor old Sligo flopped today. But there also does seem to be some kind of deep-rooted psychological thing going on here, which means that beaten provincial finalists are simply unable to raise their game following their provincial defeat. Galway are, as you say, a good example (though by no means the only one) in this respect – one for the shrinks maybe?
Losing provinal finalists should get a home draw to take some of the advantage away from the teams in the back door earlier. Limerick were the only team to go close, and they had a big home crowd behind them.