Championship prediction mini-league 2018 – second update

My interest in the 2018 championship has, I’ll cheerfully admit, has all but dissipated. But there are some aspects to it I can’t shake myself fully clear of and one of these is the prediction mini-league, for which another update is now overdue.

The current state of play at the top of the leaderboard is illustrated below. There’s a new leader at the top since I did the last update early in June, with Tom Sweeney now out in front and he’s currently got a 21-point cushion on the chasing pack. A tightly-knit group it is that’s pursuing the leader, as just two points separate the next four contestants.

52 thoughts on “Championship prediction mini-league 2018 – second update

  1. Well done Mr Sweeney. Also well done to Compass bar high stool which must be the best name in that competition.
    Nearly as good as “Turnip Head” which is the best name i’ve seen anywhere in this place.

    Looking forward to October and getting a “Roscommon type easy draw” V Leitrim for a place in the Connacht Final (after we beat New York).

  2. A bit late to the debate here but I think the key stat from the 2018 Mayo senior campaign is the one mentioned on here previously- that 8 players from the Newbridge game played against Longford in 2010 (10 if TP & SOS were fit).
    This highlights the urgent need for new player development and maybe reflects on the priorities of recent managers. Whether it is this management team or a new one that is in place, the introduction of new (younger) blood is essential. I am not suggesting a drastic player cull as we have a core of real quality players but the replacement of 6/7 peripheral squad members with younger recruits with potential to develop in the senior environment. Newbridge may well go down as the “end of an era” and good luck to it, let the new era begin. I am quite optimistic and excited about the senior team’s potential in the next 2-3 years if the management & Co- board embrace the challenge. Mayo were in a much worse place in 1996 when John Maughan “took charge” of a div 3 team. It was the opportunity for the introduction of players like D.Brady, J.Horan, P. Gardiner, M.Sheridan, C.McD and PJ Loftus to develop at inter county standard playing alongside older guys like McHale, Finnerty, Flanagan etc. And we know how close that team brought us in 96 & 97. I will be renewing my season ticket for 2019 and welcoming the new era!

    PS- Did any Cairdre Mayo member receive merchandise this year? I think I got a travel bag last year!

  3. Im glad I didn’t do it for the summer. I am finding it hard to muster any great enthusiasm for the rest of the championship campaign.

    Keeper Sweeper I believe we got a bag last year. Nothing this year so far…..

  4. Just looking at Ah Refs excellent work on Division1 Stats. The top scorers are very interesting.

    Darren Coen – Holly Carra 0-42
    Kevin Feerick Holly Carra 4-10
    Conor O Shea Breaffy 1-20
    Jimmmy Killeen Garrymore 4-26
    Mark Tierney Garrymore 3-15
    Ronan Malee Kiltimagh 1-19
    Ross Egan Aghamore 4-21
    David Stenson Castlebar 4-43
    Kevin Newell Ballina 3-15
    Ciaran Treacy Ballina 0-21
    James Shaughnessy Claremorris 2-34
    Jack Reilly Charlestown 2-33
    Fionan Duffy Crossmolina 0-41

    Only one of these has been part of the Senior setup this year, hopefully club players can break into a heretofore closed shop

  5. @Keeper sweeper, didint get a notification of any merchandise this year either…that travel case was decent last year. Anyone know if we are to get a hat, flag or headland for free this year?

  6. Not getting anything this year in regards to Cairde Maigheo merchandise. I contacted them a few weeks ago and they said that there would be no gear as the price of the season ticket increased and they didn’t pass it onto Cairde members

  7. Very interesting Stats Redcol.
    You would think over a 2-3 year period there would be a few potential county guys in that list if they were willing to give the commitment that is.
    loads of guts can do it at club level but will they put lives on hold for it.

  8. Isn’t it mad that none of the current mayo forwards are in this table. Just goes to show that Rochford prefers worker bees in the forward line

  9. County players haven’t played the majority of club league games so far so it’s not a like for like comparison.

    Also Jason Doherty and Andy play division 2 league so can’t be included in those stats.

  10. What a deplorable and disgusting article by Martin Breheny.
    Knows how to kick a team when it is down.
    I know we should not even bother reading such tripe which is why not posting link.

  11. Redcol, those stats are interesting but… Conor played more club league games than most other panel members. Most panel members as usual played very little club football this year.
    Was looking back at Rochfords 3 years in charge and as plenty have said here he’s been a lucky manager as far as qualifier draws go. In fact kildare last week were the first div 1 team we’ve drawn in our 3 qualifier journeys out of 9 games played. In the last 3 years we’ve played 9 games against div 1 teams. We won 2, both last year against Ros and kerry. We’ve drawn 3, Ros and kerry last year and dub 2016. We’ve lost 4, dub 16&17, and galway and kildare this year. We’ve also struggled in the league during this time.
    After this weekends games we could be the only div 1 team not involved in the super 8. I suppose my point is that league counts and staying in div 1 is vital for the future of mayo football. If I’m honest I’d have to say it really annoys me when people put forward the notion that it may be a good thing to have a stint in div 2. The place to build on your squad is in div 1 against the top teams, you’ll never know for sure if players are good enough unless they are tested at the highest level.
    BTW the above are just stats, it’s not a finger pointing exercise. You play who your drawn against. I’m not interested in getting into a debate as to who should stay or go, management or players.
    But I do believe it’s the end of an era, a prolonged era of missed chances, compounded by some strange decisions and some downright bad luck. And because of that I am so sad for all mayo people players and supporters.

  12. Many thanks again Willie Joe for such an informative site hope you have a quiet few months now before we start again,John Cuffe yes it was you and I am really sorry for offending you it was certainly not intended ,I always enjoy your posts and writing and really enjoyed your book,so hopefully you will forgive my post.on the team i am not sure it is the end of the road for them,I thought after Kerry in Limerick that it was the end but another poster Liam said no ,he was correct and happily i was so wrong,can we wait and see if Kildare are better than we have given them credit for,Kildare certainly did not target the league so it will be interesting to see how it plays out,hopefully the extended break will give the players minds and body’s time to recover,and bring on a few new faces,but we have to be patient because I believed that C Loftus,and F Boland would be far further forward than they showed this year hopefully next year they and several others will come through,but some players who can not make the collage team are unlikely to be strong enough for the county team,and a player who was not starting to his club would be not good enough for the team,thanks again

  13. Did Adam Gallagher leave the squad or was he dropped
    Was Conor OShea carrying an injury this year or can anybody explain why he only played 5 minutes of league football and was still named as sub for championship games.

  14. Redcol alot of free takers(nearly all) in that list also. As mentioned there has been 5 starred league games. Throw in the fact the Cillian and Regan had injuries and would have played very little football wit clubs. Also the best defenders largely in mayo panel as well so might be easier to score. You can read a stat anyway you like but to get full value from them to have to look at the reason behind them. Some great players on dat list and some I’m sure will be given a chance. Tracey & Reilly are 2 I’d like to c given dere chance. Tracey was in the panel at start of year and but got injured in warm up for our 1st league game.

  15. I’m not making a case for any of these players but if we had a reliable left footed free taker this year, we might have won a higher percentage of games.

    I would like to think that some of these players will be looked at in competitive league football and not just the customary FBD stuff

  16. I said it a few weeks back and I got slated for my opinion,not enough new players getting game time,why was aos and Kevin mc starting a fbd game is beyond me,look at Dublin and Kerry,bringing in young players all the time,we need to give new lads a fair chance and game time,

  17. Redcol are you sure those stats are correct how come Evan Regan and James Durcan scores aren’t listed? Ok I know Cian Hanley hasn’t played much for the club but surely Evan Regan has a good scoring record for Ballina?

  18. Evan Regan has scored 0-17 in three games 0-9 Frees

    Diarmuid O Connor 0-3 in three matches

    Conor Loftus 1-6 in 4 games. 4 frees

    Kevin Mc Loughlin 1-4 in 3 Games

    Fergal Boland 0-8 in 4 Games

  19. Gary Walsh 2014 minor from Breaffy was their second highest scorer with 1-19. He was a young player with potential also.

  20. When will we have venue/ time for u20 match?
    Not much thought for supporters here. Anybody have any info?

  21. Regarding Cairde members and merchandise I was told at the launch it would happen on joining up and every second year beyond that. The travel bag was a super bit of kit and badly needed.

  22. Ontheditch re Mayo v Derry U20
    According to Wikipedia ie (Google Mayo v Derry U20) this game is scheduled for Croke Park on 14th/15th July 2018.
    It’s been there (on wikipedia) for at least a week.
    Not sure if you can trust it or not….

  23. Thanks Pat. All I get on is TBC. No info when it is to be confirmed. Not sure I would trust wiki on this one, but if you get word, please post. You too Mark it’s a game we would like to go to but plans have to be made. Hopefully too we will announce team and subs in advance.

  24. I think it is Mark.
    Yeah i want to go as well.
    To be honest Dublin suits me but can’t see that it will most folks
    Sligo would be obvious but maybe it’s not seen as neutral.
    Longford would be the other venue that is neither Connaught or Ulster.
    Played minor replay there in 2008 i think it was
    Interested in seeing this ODonaghue lad

  25. If it is indeed Croker for u20s then that will most likely mean a 12pm throw in on the Sunday with zero atmosphere and 30 euro a ticket

    I’d rather a double header with the other semi at a provincial ground

  26. Actually Kildare are playing Kerry in the other semi so if they are on in Croker that will be on the Sunday with our game on at 3pm on the Saturday

    Could be tempted !

  27. I hoped we’re not dragged to Croker for the game. Sligo would be best for us, but if Derry aren’t happy with that, play it in Carrick or Tullamore.

  28. I’m surprised nobody knows the venue for the U20 semi. My Leitrim contact was called for stewarding duty for the game at 4.30 at Carrick on Shannon a few days ago. Carrick was the venue for the drawn All Ireland final in 1983 with the replay in Irvinestown, Co Fermanagh. That venue has fallen out of favour with Brewster Park in Enniskillen now top Fermanagh venue.

  29. That’s interesting…. Can’t buy tickets so final decision not made…

  30. I agree. How can we plan to support this team when we dont know the venue or time yet.

  31. The GAA suits don’t work at weekends. They’ll meet up in Croke Park tomorrow and decide.

  32. l know l’m skating on dangerous territory here, but, didn’t the Rossies do well. An excellent forwards display. From here on, after the heartbreak, I support the West.

  33. Wide Ball, since Leitrim were rounding up stewards last week the Croke Park suits must have already decided but just not bothered to tell anybody. Similarly I can’t get any information on their website re venues for super eight games next weekend apart from the Dublin game. Great way of boosting attendances.
    pocaimora, The Rossies did well ok but it’s a long, long time since Armagh threatened anybody seriously. I’m still not convinced about their midfield or defence. Let’s see them v Dublin before making any judgement.

  34. Wide Ball, since Leitrim were rounding up stewards last week the Croke Park suits must have already decided but just not bothered to tell anybody. Similarly I can’t get any information on their website re venues for super eight games next weekend apart from the Dublin game. Great way of boosting attendances.
    pocaimora, The Rossies did well ok but it’s a long, long time since Armagh threatened anybody seriously. I’m still not convinced about their midfield or defence. Let’s see them v Dublin before making any judgement. Same with Monaghan and Donegal without McBrearty. Monaghan never threatened Dublin in the championship in recent years as far as I can recall not did Donegal.

  35. AndyD….all of the Super 8 games next weekend are in Croke Park.The following weekend it’s (I think), Group 1 – Monaghan v Kerry (Clones), Kildare v Galway ((New bridge)…Group 2 – Tyrone v Dublin (Omagh), Roscommon v Donegal (Hyde Park)
    Then on August 4/5, it’s Group 1- Kerry (Home) v Kildare and Galway v Monaghan (Salthill)…Group 2- Dublin v Roscommon (Croke Park), Donegal (Home)v Tyrone

    Mayo are the only team from the 2018 Division 1 who didn’t qualify

  36. We will know later today where the u20 semi final is on…Croke Park though is what I am hearing.

    The weekend games in round four went pretty much to plan. Cork football is really in a sorry state. Good win for da rossies but I’d fear for them going forward with that defence

  37. Bench players make a diff at u20 level too. Big Brian Cassidy came off the bench for Derry to score 2-2 in Ulster final. Declan Cassidy already scored 5 points. We’ll need our homework done on the Cassidy’s.
    Still no venue. We compain about delay in naming teams but this is a joke…

  38. Sean that’s the rumour…as a curtain raiser for the super 8 games. Personally I’d rather a game closer to home but sure we will know for sure later today

  39. Mayo fans have a fair bit of milage on the clock allready. I presume the two county boards have some say in deciding a venue or have they?

  40. If the County Board agree to that, we should be up in arms. Croke Park are just looking to milk the big Mayo support for €30 to help fill the stadium. That game should be played in a provincial venue Carrick, Sligo or Longford.
    What else would the rational be for bringing it to Croke Park?

  41. Oh man don’t think I can hack anymore kicking up about venue , just go with it wherever .

  42. Dragging Mayo Derry to Croker. Give the teams their own occasion in a nice tight venue. Not an after thought match as people settle in their seats eating Tayto.

  43. I agree WJ. It’s a Mayo Derry affair. Carrick would be my choice, full house and electric atmosphere. Have we any posters from Derry side. I reckon the have very good side, all the ingredients for a cracker.
    Like Sean, I’ve had enough of the venue issue, please let us know when confirmed

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