Mayo Football Podcast episode: Nowhere to Hyde for Mayo

The Championship begins in earnest for Mayo against Roscommon next Sunday.

Billy Joe Padden joins Rob and Mike to set the scene for Dr Hyde Park and pick through some of the main talking points.

They look at Mayo’s attacking play so far this year, talk about how to get the best out of David McBrien, and look at just why Mayo can’t afford to lose again to the Rossies.

Plus, we hear from former Roscommon star, Cathal Cregg, who gives us the opposition view.

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45 thoughts on “Mayo Football Podcast episode: Nowhere to Hyde for Mayo

  1. The vibe seems weird this week.
    Not the usual rumour mill/idle talk/fantasy lineups.

    Probably this is because we know at this stage what the starting lineup is going to be (give or take 1 or 2 places). The management have been playing a hardcore of 12/13 of their preferred lineup right throughout the league and I don’t see it change much. Flynn will come in from the last day for sure, and I suspect Diarmuid and maybe McHugh to resume his matchplay on enda smith.

    Looking at the year ahead as a whole I think this is a massive massive game for us. I think it’s a must win, as our best chance of sneaking to a final imo is by winning connaught and topping our AI group.

    When you look at last year the 4 group winners were in very strong positions for quarter final, if armagh didn’t do their usual thing of snatching defeat from certain victory it would have been 4 for 4.

    Also we are on the Kerry side of the draw, I would have them well behind Derry/Dublin so I think they would be decent semi final opponents to get.
    I firmly believe we can beat any one of derry/dublin/kerry on our day but we cannot beat all 3

  2. @Supermac

    No more “sides of the draw” anymore. Open draws at all stages – with the only exceptions being group stage and provincial final repeats.

  3. Rob’s little error wrt the Rossies beating us twice in a row got me digging in the archives.

    1980 was the last time the Rossies beat us twice in a row. 44 years so roughly twice in a lifetime. (That wasn’t in my lifetime – so decent argument here for them being “due one”)

  4. Team I expect management to select.

    C Reape;
    J Coyne, ,D McBrien S Callinan;
    P Durcan, R Brickenden D McHugh,
    J Carney, M Ruane;
    D O’Connor, F Boland, E McLaughlin
    A O’Shea, T Conroy, R O’Donoghue

    Among the subs to bring on S Coen,J Flynn,B Tuohy, C O’Connor, P Towey; E Hession

  5. @FrostT
    I did not know that! Thanks for the info, I was sure I read recently that the prospective provincial winners were on different sides of the draw, in which case you would have Kerry/Connaught winner on semi side of draw.

    Good to know.
    It’s all luck of the draw then at qf stage

  6. I wasn’t aware of the open draw either tbh. Sure I heard Eamon Fitzmaurice saying Derry will meet Dublin (if all goes to plan for both) in the semis right after the league final. Anyhow, there’ll be a couple of curve balls before all that.

  7. For my sins, FrosTHammer, I was there at Hyde Park for that Connacht final defeat in 1980! I’d finished the Leaving Cert a few weeks beforehand as I recall. They absolutely thumped us that day: 3-13 to 0-8, beat us out the gate and down the road. In our defence that was a cracking Roscommon team. That was their fourth Connacht title in a row and they ran Kerry close in that year’s All-Ireland final.

  8. Eamon Fitzmaurice didn’t do his research a draw will be required for the All Ireland semi finals.

  9. @Supermac: You likely did. A lot of Provincial Pairings being mentioned going around, all mistaken.

    @FrostTHammer: They’ve retained the Semi-Final exception quirk again where for that round, and that round only, they try to avoid all other prior Championship meetings (e.g. a Mayo/Roscommon or Derry/Donegal AI Semi-Final would be avoided where possible but no issue with a repeat QF or pQF for those pairings).

  10. I was there too WJ. It was just after the great John Morley was murdered and gardai were everywhere. We were stopped, about 5 young lads in a car and the Guard had a look in and saw our colours. Just said, go on ye have enough trouble.

  11. Rossies are a Division One team for the past few years, so one could argue that this is the second proper championship match of the year (first will be Donegal v Derry on Saturday); what we’ve had to date have been mismatches or lower division clearance.

    Davy Burke is a bit of an enigma – I wonder if the Rossies have that much confidence in him? But, a win against neighbours and division one champions of ’23, would see shares rise, and rise spectacularly. They have the players to do it, and they know our weak spots, and we have weak spots.

    They have home advantage, but we like The Hyde; I’m not sure that any Connacht venue is a problem for any Connacht team, so slight advantage to us because we can maximise performance at that venue.

    Won’t be putting any money on it I can tell you.

  12. That’s right, Nephin, the final was the weekend after those murders. Loughlynn wouldn’t be far as the crow flies from the home place so those shocking events felt very close to home for us.

  13. and the late Henry Byrne who was so unlucky, was walking down the street and was told to jump into the garda car as they headed off to Shannon’s Cross

  14. I am really looking forward to the game on Sunday. It feels like Championship is coming to life. I wouldn’t heed the Rossies’ poor form in the League. Why should we give it any weight? We know that the Rossies have good players and we know that Davy Burke is a good, ambitious, confident and shrewd manager. Those factors have not changed.

    Therefore, I hope that we are prepared for a right challenge and a team that could beat us. Let us go into the game geared up and ready. If we do that, I feel we can win. If we don’t, we could be chasing our tails, like puppies going round and round, and puppies don’t heed about being effectual.

    I also hope we can beat the blanket. Let’s see some long range shooting. Can’t wait.

    I am also curious to see what Mayo has not shown us in the Springtime. I think that it makes sense that Mayo has held something back this year, wanting to hit higher levels of performance in the Championship. Having said that, one never knows : )

  15. Pound for pound the Rossies have better forwards than Mayo and after us conceding 2.6 against NY I fear for our full back line on Sun

  16. Ross will and have always needed goals to win against us in recent times and this game will be the same. I believe this game will be the barometer of where we are at. I said previously I expect a decent win and will stand over that. I think we are in a better place than last year and seen enough snippets in. 3 – 4 games defensive structures have been worked on. I expect no goal to be conceded. ( maybe that should be want).

  17. Enda smith won alot of ball around the midfield area last year some of it uncontested from what I remember.our midfielders have to start winning possession in that area .whether defensive structures have improved well we still continue to concede goals and goal chances.As I have said I think we will win but I don’t really see any major improvement from last season

  18. On league form Mayo should win this game handy enough as Roscommon seemed in disarray towards the end of the league. I believe though that Roscommon will lift themselves for this game and have a right go at Mayo. The worry for Mayo is the over reliance on Ryan to get the scores. If he has an off day or gets injured other players will have to step up but its not been proven so far that the other forwards are up to Ryan’s standard. If ye have Durkan and Diarmuid O Connor back it will be a big plus. Mayo would be strong favourites with many writing the Rossies off after the league and that’s exactly where they will want to be as any Mayo complacency will be punished. I will go for a Mayo win but it wouldn’t be the biggest shock of all time if Roscommon turn ye over.

  19. The year starts for us on Sunday. League was just shadow boxing, just look at the results between the different teams.
    We have no idea where Mayo are at and won’t know until Sunday evening.
    Am I right in saying that in u20 the FB and CHB played in the same positions for Castlebar B team last year.

  20. @JR totally agree with you..

    People say we are reliant on Ryan O D one game v new york in a weird venue yes Ryan O D was class act as always.

    paddy durcan only back from injury pretty much, missing Jordan flynn, Diarmuid o Connor. Paddy durcan drove us forward at the start of the league pre injury.

    Yes Tommy conroy still not back to his best but he does so much off the ball stuff.

    Ryan O D is top class but so is paddy durcan, cillian O Connor etc. I still think cillian O Connor deserves more starts.

    Still mayo by 4 or 5.

  21. Ryan is now a huge player for us. The rest of our forwards with the exception of Boland have not scored regularly enough. Aido was never a great score getter against top teams, Tommy’s struggles are a major concern. Jordan on a good day might get a score or two. Jack Carney may chip in with one as may Paddy D and Reape. In contrast Ross have more reliable score getters so our backs will have to be on their games defensively. Gone are the days of Leeroy bursting forward for a morale boosting goal or Higgins and Boyle rampaging up the field for an inspirational point. I still reckon Cillian could be a big player for us. We are not as good as we were but are still a strong team, but while we can beat most on our day we are also capable of being beaten by anyone of the top 10 teams in the country including Roscommon. A win is hugely important for our morale not to mention the seeding later on . Maigh Eo Abu

  22. Slight tangent here, completely ignoring how the game plays out and how much we rely on Ryan for his ball winning/creativity/playmaking, but some fascinating numbers on the scoring dependency of teams from Jim Norris that fit the conversation well:
    https://twitter.com/NorrisJim/status/1780320815902335124

    Mayo’s top 3 scorers from play (Boland – 13, RO’D – 10, Towey – 1-4) providing a total of 39% of our scores from play in the National League. Taking a quick glance at others dependency on their top 3….

    Tyrone – 55%
    Roscommon – 47% (E Smith – 1-8, D Murtagh – 9, D Smith – 2-3)
    Kerry – 46%
    Cork – 44%
    Mayo – 39%
    Galway – 37%
    Derry – 35%
    Donegal / Dublin – 34%

    Can quickly see trends in the teams that depend on the one or two creative high scorers (e.g. Canavan & McCurry, Cliffords or Roscommon’s dependency on Messrs Smith) versus the ones that tend to spread it around, be that among a wider selection of forwards or, more often, throughout their whole team.

    Extrapolating out from the numbers on scores from play we can see what % of total scores for the league came from dead balls.

    Mayo: 33.91%
    Dublin: 6.49%
    Derry: 5.07%
    Donegal: 15.63%
    Tyrone: 27.88%
    Kerry: 21.77%
    Cork: 24.37%
    Roscommon: 33.70%
    Galway: 34.04%

    Was surprised to see all 3 Connacht teams sitting as outliers as the only teams over 30%. Probably the clearest number to try and illustrate what we’ve all seen, none of the 3 has really found form yet or got their forward lines out of 2nd gear or clicking.

  23. I’d love to see him play this team but he won’t

    Reape
    Coyne
    McBrien
    Callinan
    Durcan
    O’Hora
    Hession
    DOC
    Ruane
    Carney
    Boland
    Flynn
    O’Shea
    Conroy
    ROD

    I know lads will say O’Hora only played one league game. But we need a bit more steel in the defence, we all know that picture of the Rossies taunting O’Shea when he was on the canvas last year.

    We can’t let that happened again…

  24. to win just once – Roscommon were the lowest scorers in division 1. They got 9 points when we met in the league and even in championship last year they only got 10 scores (2 goals obviously)

    We still have more than enough scoring ability around the pitch for this weekend. McBrien, Callinan, Brick, McHugh, McLaughlin, Durcan, Ruane etc are all capable of chipping in with points or a goal too.

  25. The major worry for me for the year is that ROD is the only player we have who is guaranteed to score.

    We have some lads like Flynn and Boland who can score, but realistically they are as likely to score nothing as to get 0-2 the next day. Aidan doesn’t score and being honest, Tommy Conroy needs to play well Sunday or else we look for alternatives for the round robin.

    Think we can have a relatively successful year and could even make a semi. But we’ll definitely lose that semi because when the game is there to be won, we simply don’t have the forwards to win it.

  26. Tsudhonim.interesting figures as always from you
    We are a long way from Dublin / Derry in terms of reliance on free kicks to get scores.
    Some of our reliance I think based on our style of play, down to coaching. Our reluctance to take on the posts from the 40, instead continuing to recycle the ball until turnover/free kick. It’s a worrying aspect of our style of play because the better teams will be patient and not give away free kicks.
    Championship is a fresh slate. Hopefully we ve learned a thing or two in the league. I expect a ‘ make a statement ‘ performance from Mayo on Sunday. Give us momentum going forward

  27. The reliance on ROD means he will be heavily marked on Sunday. Surely its an opportunity for another forward to stand up. I’m not sure if playing Aido is of any benefit really. He isn’t scoring and gets turned over a lot. Then if things aren’t going well he drifts out to the already over crowded HF line to get involved. We have 6 backs attacking now so this plays in to the hands of the blanket defence.
    Cillian hasn’t the legs but he has the ability to win frees, create space for others and see a pass. He will get a few from play too. If aido starts, he needs to score or create scores quickly or it will give rossies a lot of confidence if he starts moving deep again.
    Tommy needs space so let’s create some for him..

  28. Really interesting numbers Tsudho on points from frees & it doesn’t surprise me. It is also alarming to see it. We need to be able to score more points from play or we won’t be doing much this year. Of course, every point counts no matter how you score it. But when we’re that reliant on frees, it’s only going to end one way when the chips are down

  29. “Tommy needs space so let’s create some for him..”

    This will be the making or breaking of us this year .

  30. I think this game isn’t going to be one for the purest and deffo not one for Spillane and o rourke to be reviewing from the olden days
    Drab physical slow battle that’s won by thr team who wins most frees is how I see this one.
    We have the potential to blow them away but need to be in our stride to do so .
    …………………..Reape
    Brickedeen…..Mcbrien…Callinan
    Durkan……….Coen……..Hession
    ……………Ruane…..Carney
    Flynn………Boland……Mclaughlin
    …………………Conroy
    AOS…………………………..ROD

    Is how I think he will lineup and I’d agree with most it but if fit I’d have Carr in for AOS and start Cillian instead of Conroy.
    Throw it down to Conroy , you need to make an impact to be Considered .
    Cillian starting or coming on as a sub? I’d be for starting g him in this game, tag on few early frees , his bit of venom and bite but also his super awareness if making space and attracting markers to him would benefit ROD from the get go rather than chasing a game .
    I think we will win hut if we see same lineup as v new York, it will be long day of flat football.
    Mclaughlin at 12 is essentially where he played in the league and he gives that direct running option and if he can offload the ball to men in space such as ROD or Cillian I think this is where we can make hay .
    We won’t be killing out ROD or Cillian and just asking them to tag on scores to utilise them to their best

  31. Is tommy a bust flush or does he need repositioning like James Horan did in 99.
    The impact Horan had when moved to fillforward was class.
    He was styphilled at 10 due to defensive work and physicality but reborn at 14 and won his second all star.

    For me tommy Conroy is opposite and needs a spell in halfforwards to free himself out .
    He is intelligent but in game he’s not seeing the spaces and running up blind alleys .
    Get him out the field on the ball deeper and like a Formula 1 car let him pick up his speed and noone will catch him .
    He’s boxed up in the blanket defenses and he’s confidence is knocked , on the ball deeper soloing thru ones twos like a gazelle in the form of Michael Donnellan in 98 (games not changed, no one bests pace, u have to foul or let him through) and we will see best to Tommy but persist with same plan and we will kill his confidence .
    Carr is only man for fullforward role with physicality, scoring and interlink play

  32. Thanks WJ. No surprises as you say, but interesting to see most have got some game time.

    It’s a solid panel I think.

  33. @TsuDhoNim – I think you may have a mistake in your numbers above. I think Mr Norris has included the league finals in his numbers, and this has lead to the oddly low figures you have for Dublin and Derry (and probably Donegal)

    I had numbers on each sides total scores from checking up on Roscommon’s forwards a few days ago. By total scores I mean counting goals and points equally, so 2-16 is 18 for example

    Percentage Scores from Deadballs
    Derry: 25/112 = 22%
    Dublin: 47/132 = 35%
    Kerry: 41/110 = 37%
    Mayo: 33/99 = 33%
    Tyrone: 29/98 = 30%
    Galway: 26/82 = 32%
    Roscommon: 27/82 = 32%

    Looking a bit tidier now.
    Big jump in Kerry’s numbers is almost certainly because they got zero penalties.

    Ideally these numbers should be checked against Conversion Rates from Play and Deadballs to give a more truthful assessment.

  34. A few here talking about Eoghan Mac at HF, I’d say no, he’s in a 3 way half back group with Coen and Hession. Of those 3, Coen is the best for game management and reading things and a leader and the other have pace but don’t consistently deliver enough scores, Eoghan’s conversion rate is low given the chaos he can cause.
    The other suggestion of Tommy C at HF is a better idea as he wins loads of frees and Teams have no choice often times but to pull him down. He can also add that 5% pace to our running game which we can fall back on when needed. That means only 4 of Ruane, Carney, Boland, Tuohy, Diarmaid and Flynn get to play. It means Carr if fit or Towey get to start with Cillian as sub. Tuohy could also play Aido’s position with height and pace and decent scoring ability or they could alternate as we have no leftie natural corner forwards.

  35. @Shuffly Deck

    I think you may have forgotten about a certain P Durcan 🙂

    I find I’m doing the exact same thing and forgetting about someone in our defence everytime I try to put a team.

    Imo it’s the best indicator of the depth we have atm

  36. The Hyde will bring a strong home atmosphere,but Mayo haven’t lost a league or championship game here since the 2001 Connacht final .
    Mayo forwards perform better in Connacht

  37. Williamstown Gerry – Mayo have won 2 Connacht championships since 2015. We have 1 Connacht win and 2 defeats against Roscommon in that time, with 2 wins and 4 defeats against Galway in the same period.

    Mayo forwards and the team in general perform better outside Connacht as we’ve reached 4 all Ireland finals and won 2 national leagues since 2015.

  38. Two stand tickets available for Sunday. Row 20, seats 10/11. Going for €40. Contact me on 0851354706 if interested

  39. @FrostTHammer: Ohhh, good spot.

    To be fair to Jim I’d have no issue with his choice of adding in the league finals or counting a goal as 3 scores. I’d have included both of those too in his shoes. I just made a really silly slip by using the “Total Scores For” for the R7 league table to compare against while including those R8 games. Mia culpa.

    Updated (still including R8 ties for Dublin/Derry/Donegal & 3 scores for a goal):
    Mayo: 76/115 = 33.91%
    Dublin: 144/181 = 20.44%
    Derry: 131/165 = 20.61%
    Donegal: 108/143 = 24.48%
    Tyrone: 75/104 = 27.88%
    Kerry: 97/124 = 21.77%
    Cork: 90/119 = 24.37%
    Roscommon: 61/92 = 33.70%
    Galway: 62/94 = 34.04%

    A quick comparison between the two methodologies (a goal worth 1 score vs 3 scores) is probably the most worrying set of numbers. To see our number barely moving vs the likes of Kerry’s or Dublin’s shifting by 50% isn’t too inspiring. That said, plenty of goal chances created & squandered buried among those numbers (despite not playing especially well in plenty of games) so hopefully an upward trajectory to come yet.

  40. @TsuDhoNim

    Yeah I don’t have a problem with him including them either – just it would have been nice if he’d made it a little clearer.

    I didn’t catch it initially either, but when I ran against my numbers it left Derry with a ridiculously low number of 9 scores from frees.
    I was halfway through typing up a “those numbers are wrong” post before I caught it.

    The lack of movement in our numbers is simply a quirk due to our percentage of goals from penalties being quite close to the end number.

    My own opinion is really that neither methodology is worth anything on their own. Imo you need to run both and compare against each other to glean anything useful. An opinion I’d extend to all stats – numbers in isolation are worthless, it’s all in the comparison.

    In this my initial numbers were intended to determine how clinical the Roscommon forwards are.

  41. Hopefully a win on Sunday will lift spirits.
    Provincials I feel are a thing of the past, poor crowds, bad weather and little cor no atmosphere so far.

  42. Yes JR the Cavan Monaghan match in Clones was a wake up but then again 8000 fans in Times Square drinking ten dollars flat beer
    Interesting to see will many of them head to the less than glamorous Hyde
    Big roadworks in frenchpark

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