Seeing as we’re now midway between when the drawn game took place and when the replay is set to throw in, maybe it’s time to start testing the waters on how you think Saturday’s rematch will go.
The match odds for the replay are, not surprisingly, far tighter than they were going into Sunday. We were on offer at 15/8 the last day but for Saturday the best price you’ll get on us is 5/4 with Dublin priced at 10/11.
The poll we had before the drawn match resulted in 73% of respondents saying we’d win. Admirable optimism but, of course, you were all incorrect as I should add were the remaining 27% who voted for Dublin. With all we know now that we didn’t know then, I wonder if the prevailing feeling is more or less optimistic ahead of Saturday’s replay? Let’s find out.
Will we win the replay?
- Yes (81%, 496 Votes)
- No (19%, 115 Votes)
Total Voters: 611
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Dublin bottled the first game. They have a serious amount of question marks
We got out of jail, are carrying in the momentum and have the wounds of 12 months ago to drive us on. I think we’re the hungrier and more determined team also
Mayo by 3 or 4 points
I think we’ll do it…by 1/2. Dublin look rattled and we didn’t play as we can last Sunday. Expect a Barry in for maybe a twin tower FF line.
Mayo would be my bet to win this replay. After 60 minutes Mayo were finished for all intents and purposes, goose cooked and all other clichés, the fact that they are still involved and earned a replay from such an unlikely position points to The X factor, and neither Kerry or Dublin can have that x factor today since they have both won big trophies recently. It’s a bit like a bull knowing there’s a cow, “round”, a few fields up the way and he goes through barb wire and thorny bushes to get to her, Mayo are exactly the same, they wont be stopped by Dublin or Kerry or even the pick of both. The desire for Sam is too strong and they have too many thorny bushes and barb wire fences gone through at this stage to be stopped. Mayo to win this game, and win it well, if they keep the 15 men on the pitch by not taking the bait from the dubs.
Mayo 2 16
Dublin 1 13
Love the agricultural analogy, Dave – a metaphor like that would just be lost on the likes of Charlie Redmond!
Willie Joe , I only voted yes because you didn’t include a “we are going to bate them by 10 points “option
Agreed WJ, much like the two legged bull from Limerick fame and his determination to “have a chat” with Cormac Reilly despite the best efforts of all the stewards in the ground, the bovine anology will be lost on our urban brethren.
Dave, could you leave the “agricultural sexual activity” out of it. I was always taught that things like that will send you to hell !!! 😉
What’s d o Shea on about a o Shea giving out over the head butt can’t make sense of that o Shea is only up for the dubs anyway
I would love to see Barry Moran in on the full forward line , beside Aiden O Shea, with instructions to play with aggression ,( within the rules) on the ball, and to help out Aiden.
That is all we need to break the Dubs spirits.
Their very foundation of bullying/ intimidation, would be faced down, and then we could play football.
This is what, Tyrone, Kerry and Meath,of old, did,
Or as they say in Kerry, ‘Hammer the Hammer’
Hit the nail in the head Dave. Couldn’t put in better myself
Listened to Redmond interview there WJ. In fairness as my grandad ust ta say down home “wat do expect from an ass but a kick”. I wud to class wat COC done to Connolly ( or the TR man.. Temporary release ) as a strike. It was more to shove him off. To Saturday, our inability to score freely for most of the game worries me and may be the difference.
But I do think the TR man has a great chance of getting it overturned. IMO
Connolly is a fantastic footballer and hurler, but theirs no doubt theirs a seirious gouger element running through the man. 10k got him off an assault in a popular Dublin 7 pub, and to be honest, i think he’ll get off his latest one aswell….maybe in a weird way its better that he does? Take them on again at full strength?.
I expect Dublin to come out a million mph on saturday. We need to get through the first 15mins without conceding a goal and not getting anyone sent off, do that, and we’ll win.
When was the last time we won a replay?
Most people were full sure we would beat Kerry in the replay last year. Let’s not underestimate the challenge of this one.
Perhaps the quarter-final against Laois in 2006
fermanagh 2004?
Twice on Sunday we had the fuckers in the ropes. Dublin only got going in second half after they watched us miss some easy chances before this they looked confused.We gave them confidence and they started to do some damage in saying that the second goal they scored was fortuitive .Now I don’t know if anyone else agrees but Dublin looked mentally and physically beat up by the end. You could see the skid marks appearing in their shorts 🙂 If have to keep them goalless force them to shoot from distance for their points .
Agreed Digits. It’ll be more of the same on Saturday.
I’ve gone for a Mayo win this time. I think the key to Mayo winning is relatively modest scoring game. 1-13 – 0-14.
One would assume both teams will improve on certain aspects. I would be wary about starting Moran. I’d be very surprised if Mayo midfield sees anything from Cluxton but i do expect him to go much longer on the kick out this time. Hitting Flynn and (possibly) Connolly up the line with McCaffrey and Mc Carthy in support. If he does this a few times it could force Mayo to play deeper.
There is no doubt O’Shea needs support but more importantly he needs better delivery of the ball. I am sure Mayo will be working on this during the week. He is capable of beating 2 men as we seen against Donegal but you have to give him at least a 50/50 chance in that scenario. It would be foolish for Mayo to abandon the long ball to O’Shea simply because it didn’t work the last day – Dublin remain petrified of him. He accounted through assists/frees 0-6 for Mayo the last day.
If Connolly doesnt get a pass – then McMenamon or A Brogan likely to start – i would expect KMc. He isn’t on fire this year but he remains a deadly proposition when he is on form with his ability to carry the ball including past tackles.
I hope Mayo show more faith in their midfield and pump a few old fashioned balls out to Parsons and O’Shea on the Dublin 50 yard line. You just have to ask yourself if Dublin is so keen to avoid kicking out to that area then surely Mayo should be in favour of kicking out to the same area!….they can’t both be right in avoiding it! It could prove particuarly beneficial if Dublin indiscipline and CoC accuracy remains a constant this week.
Good luck anyway – looking forward to it. Will hardly be on again before the game.
Dublin won their third league in a row last April, blitzed (1-21) cork in the final and blitzed Mayo in march. How long can the same bunch of players keep it up? Maybe that final 10 minutes against fermanagh was pointing to a weariness in Dublin?
I think we will win it but no way will we hammer them just because we gave them a fright on Sunday.
They now have a massive point to prove and will feel they have been unfairly victimised all week (yes, I know!), and as we all know you can’t account for the performance and temperament on the day. Wouldn’t surprise me if it went to extra time again.
Its mayo for me but……I think most people are more confident going into the replay then the fist match however as someone said above. This is still Dublin in croker so it’s not to be underestimated, a victory might even represent the pinnacle of the last 5 years (so far!).
Unlike most I would keep both Moran’s on the bench, Andy for the reasons others have outlined and Barry because its nice to have a big man on the bench to target them as they tire whether that’s in FF our out in MF will depend on the day.
However I wouldn’t wait so long to bring him on this time, he has proved his worth 2 games in a row now.
For the record I think it will be a clean enough game, you have to presume that both sets of management teams are stressing the need for this all week so it will be in the front of players minds. Although if its close with 15 to go all bets are off on this front.
If I were to pick afew key things for and against us on saturday I would say:
For
– The pre game media led aura surrounding Dublin’s unbeatable free flowing footballers is completely gone.
– We have found a way to limit opposition goal chances (yes they scored 2 but this was 100% conversion rate which won’t happen often)
– Last years replay experience should hopefully allow us to win the battle to better prepare physically and emotionally
Against
– Dublin will not conceded as many frees so we either need our shooting boots on or have to work easier opportunities. Or score more goals!
Despite obvious problem with personnel, I don’t expect Dublin will miss so many kickable frees again on Saturday.
We could have been 5 or 6 points down at half time. We will need all 15 + subs to play well for full 70 mins ,,,don’t forget Dublin can improve as well ,,, controlled aggression and ya never we could be ” bullin that cow yet ,,, only 3 more sleeps
Attack is possibly the best form of defence on Saturday!
On Saturday we need to keep their half backs in their own half as much as possible and not have them steaming through at pace. That probably means committing more of our players forward who will pose a real scoring threat and keep them worried about us in the same way we seemed to be worried about them the last day. It’s a tricky balance to achieve but one that is key to winning the game.
We also need to have different attacking options including the long ball into AOS and one other forward (Barry Moran, Alan Freeman or Cillian) as well as the hard running / passing option from midfield and our backs. This will definitely keep their defenders guessing and unsettled which is what we didn’t do the last day for very long periods.
Put simply if we do the playing / attacking and force them to do the defending their much vaunted silky skills and clever movements mightnt count for much. And defending isn’t something they are too used to doing being that up to now they dominate posession and spend most of every game on the attack. Defending is possibly the weakest part of their game in my opinion as we saw in the last 15 mins last Sunday and we need to exploit it. Then again, as always, it’s easier said than done.
Clever heads needed now if ever.
will need at least 2 goals to win.
if we get them and stay solid at the back we should beat them. The 2 Morans need to start aswell.
Also any attempted bullying should be dealt with (without getting sent off).
2 big lads up front for the first 15-20m
Diehard has the right idea.. We should dictate the game on our terms and let them guess “what next?” Forget Dublin and what they might do etc, etc.. Put our twin towers on for 10 mins with runners in support. There is no way the Dubs will have planned for that, high balls raining in on top of them. They will have to be on the back foot.
Then. they are just getting to grips with that and then,Mayo, the fuckers, go for all out attack. Back foot again, what the fuck??? Just getting to grips with that and then,10 mins goes by and all of a sudden,
Mayo go defensive!! What the hell is happening?? Repeat that with fresh, early, subs second half and it’s bye, bye Dubs!!! Just common sense. In any war, if you have to defend, and outguess your opposition, you have problems!!! 🙂
It’s 50/50 with this one however couldn’t go against the county .
I would like to see Barry Moran start but you can see management’s reasoning for not starting him as well. He is the only midfield cover that we have if either Tom Parsons or Seamie get injured or black carded (we seen what happened to Bastick and MDMC for Dublin). He also provides cover in the sweeper and full-forward positions as well. We don’t really seem to have any other midfield cover options on the bench, if Barry starts, as Danny Kirby has not featured in the match day 26 so far. If we did lose a midfielder I suppose we would still have the option of moving Aido out there and maybe putting Andy or Alan Freeman at full-forward.
Mayo can and I believe will do it.I certainly dont think we should abandon the sweeper but that doesnt mean we cant push up for kickouts .It is a high energy game though so subs will be vital.
Drake wont start and I wonder how long it will take for changes to be made.Took too long on Sunday.
Really hoping for big games all round.
I love the thought of the lads going out there into the cauldron that will be Croker next Saturday and giving the Dubs a thumping of epic proportions but its not going to happen. They will be just as up for this game as our lads and will have learned that they need to improve on their discipline and remain controlled and patient for the full 70mins as they have the class up front to pick off scores with relative ease. Connolly will be a big loss and his absence might just swing this replay in our favour…
I’m reading here people telling us not to be too confident well to that I say bunkum because it doesn’t matter how confident we are it won’t affect the players or the result what will affect the players is our support we can be the 16th Man women and child and roar them on to victory lets be positive in the stands and the players will feed off this for the record I think we are well capable of winning and I think we will and if I see anyone leaving with ten mins left I will cut the brass monkeys off them cos this team owes us nothing and we should support them to the bitte/sweet end
I think we’ll win it this time (was 50/50 for the first game in all honesty).
But it’ll be another battle and tighter than a mermaids brassiere.
The Dubs looked seriously rattled in those last 10 mins, I’d have question marks over their bottle after seeing that.
I have absolutely zero question marks over our lads bottle. Zero.
Fantastic last ten min left me in bits but so proud of Mayo team . The never say die attitude is what separates these guys from the rest. they are men on a mission and that is hard to stop.
Barry Moran needs to be used a lot more as he is fresher now than most of the rest . would like to see him in sooner than last 5.
Jim Mc Guiness makes and interesting point in Times yesterday about using him and COC in support of Aido . not from the get go but later on when we need to push the Dubs.
interesting vid doing the rounds showing Connolly strike out a Keegan twice from behind before leeroy reacts and is forced to the ground and punched in the head.
He may well get off but it would be travesty if he does.
best of luck to the lads on Saturday and keep the mission going to the end . dubs to blink first
That ould bull Dave is a bit sluggish for my liking.Personally I prefer to see the keen eyed AI man flying in the avenue,bips the horn, straight in straight out , bang ,gone!!
My score v close to last time
2-15 to 1-16. We win !
That is ….the keen eyed more clinical AI man with no repeats needed!
Dublin won’t miss the amount of chances they did last Sunday.
Dublin won’t be foolish enough to loose a man through indiscipline early on.
Dublin will have learned that it’s a 70 min game and not 60 mins so they won’t relent if they go ahead.
Dublin won tactically for the most part last Sunday. They constantly fouled for a number of reasons, Firstly to prevent Mayo from getting into a scoring position, prevent Mayo from scoring from play and building momentum and finally putting Coc under pressure. Cillan had a bad day against Donegal and if he had a similar day last Sunday then we wouldn’t be having this debate. Can he be as good again on Sat?
All talk is of us pushing up on Cluxtons kick outs but will that not leave us exposed like we have been so often before?
Can we afford to deploy our 4 midfielders on the pitch all at once by playing Barry up top or as a sweeper?
People talk about Dublin being mentally frail? I’ve yet to see a Dub that wasn’t cocky
A lot of questions let’s hope management have the answers to counter them. Let’s hope
I cannot believe some bloggers want to see BM in the full forward line. I remember how he has been tried there. Barry is a mid fielder. Close quarters do not suit his game. Beware of the wounded lion. The Dubs have a point to prove this weekend. JG has a point to prove also. Some people think this will be a walk in the park. We need to play tighter. We will need to target Cluxton. We need to target that cross field ball that they used so effectively. We need to keep 15 on the field and injury free. We need to plan for the return of Connolly We need to try new things that might work, and not revert back to things that have been tried and failed in the past. We need to not loose the run of ourselves.
Agreed Pjmcmanus and we need to take our chances and be clinical. No fuking waste!!!
Those diagonal balls caused us a lot of problems, none of our defenders seemed to be able to catch the ball above their direct opponents heads and Paul Flynn got through on goal very easily for their penalty incident. So if Barry Moran starts I’d prefer to see him playing in the same role as he did against Donegal in front of our full-back line to contest those high balls into our final third and moving out to midfield when needed, also not letting any runners break through the heart of our defence so easily. I suppose it just shows how hard it is for management as well, if Barry plays that role then Dublin might hit less cross field balls and run at our defence along the wings to expose us that way.
Yeah I wouldn’t have Barry anywhere near the FF line personally
Leave him on the bench to come on as fresh legs in midfield, where he is an outstanding player. It’s a 20 man game nowadays
You’re having a laugh if you think such a move would truly unsettle Dublin, they’d only love to see two big tall fellas coming into the FF line, it can only mean one dimensional Mayo tactics, and no pace at all to let the ball into.
Freeman is the man, he can win dirty ball, defends up front mighty, is the king of forcing turnovers and is well able to take a score, he can drop deep too to collect ball. Picking barry inside is all or nothing, and deviates way too much from our actual game plan.
I think we should really play our own game and to our own strengths, and pick a team with players in their natural positions, not making decisions like this in the hope we’ll throw off Dublin or whatever
I honestly think Freeman will ultimately get the nod aswell
Ciaran, do you rate the opinions of Jim McGuinness?
If we are to win it and break Dublins resolve one of the crucial things that needs to happen, aside from all the things mentioned above, is the teams ability to play off AOS has to improve. If Aidan is in full forward then good quality ball needs to go in, that Cluxton can’t come out for, and runners need to support him, expect the off load and take the score. If Aidan is having no luck inside feed him posession in the half forwards.. he will suck in two or three Dublin players, try and break the line and again off load to supporting runners with acres of space who must capitalise and score. In summary, Aidan needs to mix his game and whoever is selected to play in support will need to read his game.. the whole team needs to read his game and play off him more.. play smart.
Another quick point is that Hennelly needs to call for the high ball.. I don’t mind him taking out one the opposition but he’s gonna clean out one of our lads out of it yet. I think Boyler gave him a bit of a bollocking the last day for taking him out of it.. no better boy ?