The nights are closing in rapidly now and the first grass frost is, so I heard on the radio earlier on, due one of the nights. October is but around the corner and still this enthralling championship season goes on.
You have a choice this morning about whether or not you want to focus on stuff that looks back to Sunday’s drawn encounter or pieces that concern themselves with Saturday week’s replay. Even though, despite my best efforts, I haven’t yet managed to sit down and watch the whole match again – I hope to do this later this evening – I’d be more interested in thinking about what’s to come. Going forward and all that.
Starting with the backward-looking stuff, though, Rob Carroll’s detailed analysis in The 42 is great – it’s here. Don’t foul has some stats-based forensics done too, all neatly summarised here:
Dub gifted 6pts which means they scored 8pts *less* than expected from their shots.0-08!!! Plus 1pt from own k/out pic.twitter.com/5LlDJP9mLG
— dontfoul (@dontfoul) September 19, 2016
Staying on Sunday, there’s a fair bit in the papers today about the pushing and shoving when the teams came out. Personally, I think it’s all stuff about nothing – we could get on our high horse about Dublin showing a lack of respect to us in not sticking to the protocol for when to come out but, really, who cares?
This report in the Irish Independent claims that Dublin could be in trouble arising from the incident but whatever fine they might get hit with would only be spare change hidden in the sofa as a percentage of their vast income. In any event, the few nice dunts our lads doled out to them as they sprinted out acted as sufficient restorative justice from our point of view for the transgression.
Some people have, I know, also got a bit exercised about Alan Brogan’s post-match column (which is here). Lookit, the man was playing for Dublin as recently as last year, his brother still is – though Harry fairly blotted him out of it on Sunday – and he’s writing in De Heddald. What do you expect him to say?
If you want an antidote to Brogan’s musings, then this ¡No Pasaran! piece on us by Gavan Casey on Balls.ie (here) should do the trick. In the same vein but in more measured tones, Colm Keys in today’s Irish Independent talks about our uncompromising approach in taking on Dublin, where he points to Lee Keegan’s ongoing dominance of Diarmuid Connolly as a particular leitmotif in this regard.
Jim McGuinness is having none of this, though. In his column in today’s Irish Times, Jim lays the blame for Dublin’s underperformance the last day squarely at their door, reckoning we had bugger all to do with it. (As an aside, does this sound to you like someone who was brought on board at the eleventh hour to give us tactical advice? No, not to me either.)
In what I thought was a strangely repetitive article, Jim reckons that Dublin will be much better the next day – he says that 99% of the time a team “will revert back to its average mean” (I think he really means the mean average, if you know what I mean) – and that, unless we go off piste and bring something “new and unexpected” into the replay, we’re goosed.
While I’m not convinced by Jim’s line of argument, neither am I entirely wedded either to the contrary notion that it’s now clearly advantage us ahead of Saturday week. Dublin did play rubbish the last day and it looked as if, all our mistakes aside, we handled the conditions better. Would Dublin’s forward line be restricted to just five points from play on a dry evening at the start of next month, if that’s what – as Danny Healy-Rae might say – God above chooses for us weather-wise then?
Edwin McGreal touches on this point in the Mayo News today (paper and digital variants). Once again, there’s oodles in this week’s paper, with some great analysis by the likes of Billy Joe Padden and Seán Rice as well as Ed, with loads more a whole host of contributors (I’m in it somewhere) besides.
Ed makes the very valid observation that while we’re great at clawing our way back into games like this we’ve yet to show we have the capability of steaming on and sealing the silverware. McGuinness makes the same point too in his column – the comeback from five down was great but we needed to keep the foot to the floor.
Make no mistake about it, folks, we’re headed back into the battle of our lives on Saturday week. Sure, we’ve earned a bit more respect as a result of how we performed on Sunday – and we might possibly now be spared the kind of patronising shite that the likes of Colm O’Rourke came out with on the radio last Friday, where he said if we scored three goals in the final ten minutes we might have a chance of halting the blue juggernaut – but Dublin are, rightly, getting plaudits too for how they managed to avoid going under in a contest where, regardless of who was responsible, they played well below their capabilities.
History isn’t any great guide for the replay either. John Fogarty in the Irish Examiner (here) has gone back over the match records for the past thirty years, which show that we’ve both won and lost five replays each, with Dublin drawing two (the Meath ones in 1991) as well. As John points out, though, we haven’t prevailed in a replay for ten years at this stage, our victory over Laois at the All-Ireland quarter-final stage in 2006 being that time.
Just one personnel-related story before finishing up – we’ll do this with a poll on the replay once I’ve dealt with this – which is mentioned in the Mayo News today and also by Colm Keys in the Irish Independent (here). This concerns the three players carrying knocks from Sunday, with Alan Dillon, Evan Regan and, more worryingly, Cillian O’Connor, all spending time with the medics at the minute.
Both Alan (foot) and Evan (concussion arising from a clash of heads) went off injured but Cillian, of course, soldiered on right to the end, his sensational injury-time point being the reason we’re all headed back to HQ once again on Saturday week, despite picking up an ankle injury. Thankfully, it sounds as if all three lads could be okay with that piece stating that Cillian’s knock “is not expected to greatly compromise his preparations for the replay.” Phew.
Right, then, let’s finish with that poll. Dublin are, once again, raging hot favourites (4/9 currently with Paddy Power) to win but how do you reckon the replay will go?
Who'll win the replay?
- Us (82%, 841 Votes)
- Them (18%, 181 Votes)
Total Voters: 1,022
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The annoying thing from my perspective is the current narrative that ‘Dublin were terrible’ and that we’ve missed the boat. The Dublin defence played well as did Fenton and the substitutes were effective enough. The players that let them down were Brogan, Flynn and Rock. Brogan and Flynn have been poor all year so Rock was in effect their net downfall on Sunday from the Kerry game.
The reality is they were up against good opposition who restricted them accordingly. People should not forget that a lot of our players mainly in midfield and up front were not at their best either…….but there seems to be less focus on that.
I still think we don’t quite get the credit we deserve as a team and I believe that there is little between us and Dublin. That is borne out by recent clashes and I believe the replay will be much the same. Of course to truly get the respect we deserve we need to win the damn thing and I’m still hopeful.
Getting the balance right between defending in numbers and having sufficient players in attack is something that requires fine-tuning.
Finally I think the GAA are a bit scrooge like with the ticket prices.
I guess we need to now park last Sunday and start planning for Saturday week. After watching the game last night I think a draw was a fair reflection on the game overall as Dublin defo could have won it the end (if they had not bottled it). Brolly at half time felt there were supernatural powers at play with the 2 own goals because at that point we had done pretty much everything right).
Going forward playing under the lights in the month of October takes on a different feel to the game. Instead of an all Ireland final it will be more like a league match in February. It will be strange and unique I think its fair to say. The next day we do need to get more out of AOS though. Cut down the unforced turnovers. Would anyone agree that Dublin lacked the hunger somewhat and cannot muster up another big game. its now a very long year as champions and maybe another game might be one too many. Heres hoping.
Watched the game again last night and I really think we have to find a way to get a player on O’Sullivan. He simply cannot mark correctly and is a major weak link that we can expose. Im not sure how hes got this reputation as a super footballer to me he is very limited and might get on a lot of ball but he’s free all the time.
I think we proved the last day that our defenders are good enough to mark their forwards one on one so we don’t need a sweeper.
I would be very confident about the replay after last Sunday I think we have a lot more in us.
I’d love to see Tom Parsons coming out the next day and putting in a man of the match performance by getting the better of Brian Fenton. I’d nearly even be saying to him, come out the next day and get the better of Brian Fenton and that would play a major part in getting us over the line the next day. It’s all to play for in less than two weeks time, we can do this!
the average and the mean are the same thing so jim is guilty of a redundancy in this case . his reasoning is sound but his answer is completely incorrect.
if we are calculating the average ( or the mean ) then its important to use the correct sample size.
the dubs are unbeaten in 28 games so do we use that sample ? no we do not , if Jim thinks dublin will get better to the point where they perform like they do against their Leinster opponents then he is severely overvaluing Leinster football.
The league must also be disregarded.
thus we have a sample size of 3 matches. Dublins 3 all ireland series games this year.
V donegal , played below their standard of last year but won.
V kerry , played slightly better but still below what we expect of them and won
V Mayo , played worse than both of those games but were handed 6 points and so drew.
Thus if Jim is correct they will now regress to the mean, I agree with this analysis.
where we disagree is where this mean is.
I say it lies between their performances V Kerry and Mayo i.e somewhere around how they played V donegal ,
Mayo can beat them if they play at that level.
All this “dublin cant play that badly again “analysis is deeply deeply flawed imo.
they will surely improve but by jims reasoning ( which I agree with ) they can only reach a certain level. jims valuation of that level is incorrect , predicated on his badly chosen sample size.
Yes I we need to get more out of Aido but he also needs to get more out of himself.
We are blessed to have such a player but his decision making near the end is mind boggling.
He took a sideline ball when he should be inside himself,he also had the ball when a point down looked up saw Stevie coen free and decided to go himself and blasted it to the corner flag.if we had lost this would be all the talk and I really think we have to look at these mistakes.stop taking frees Aidan and give us the game the whole country knows is in you.
Bit disappointed to see our lads went to Banquet afterwards. Would they have been better off going home and beginning recuperation. It is all about small margins
We need to stop Conceeding goals and give ourselves a fighting chance. Thats the starting point
Deegan named as ref
Deegan confirmed as ref for the final
Deegan announced as the Ref.
Should nt start Lee on Connolly, going to be way too much attention on that duo .
Play Barrett on him I think
_____Harri/Brogan___Higgins/Mannion
____________Kev Mc
Barrett/DC___Boyle/Rock__Durkan/McMan
__________Leeroy/Kilkenny
___Parsons/Fenton__Vaughan/MDMA
Right. Deegan is the ref. No point going into the pluses and minuses of that because it won’t do any good.
What has to happen is that the Mayo PR camp has to man mark the Dublin PR camp in relation the crap that will emerge in the next 10 days about the saintly Dublin squad.
Every bit of nonsense has to be called out vehemently with balanced examples of the truth. For every action, there must be an equal reaction.
I have no problem with the fact that our lads are not choirboys, but the Dublin squad are no angels either. This fact must be driven home at every available opportunity.
Decided to clear the head for few days before commenting. What a day sunday. Two top teams going toe to toe and so little between them. I remember looking up at the big screen watching the mayo team bus on its journey to croke park. I thought to myself the warriors are coming. My god it was tense finish. When the chips were down and men were needed they responded. Cillian showed some resposibility in kicking that final score. Thats what i was taking about last week. Guys who can take these things on and deliver. Thats what makes the difference in big games. What a pity it was not the winning point lol maybe oct 1st it will be.
Willie joe and many others were very annoyed bout the comments on sunday game. What whelan was really trying to say was that Connolly is not able for keegan. The referee needs to book lee before the game starts to give poor diarmuid a break. Its laughable really. What it all translates to is that we have them on the ropes. More of the same the next day. They are not as sharp as they were and our defending nullifies them altogether. This is the biggest stage on the gaa calender. You are going to do whatever it takes to win. And if u dont then u should not be playing. Im delighted that whelan brolly o rourke and every other muppet that spews up that kind of shite are on tv. We love the underdog tag. We showed on sunday what were made of. More of the same please. Its level playing field again the next day. 50/50 game. Fine margins again. mistakes must be minimised. Giving ball away soft is not good practice. Keeping it and recycling and being composed is the answer. Frustrate the dubs and your on a winner.
A dry sod under foot will suit our transition from back to front. Foot passing is easier judge as the ball wont fly off the surface. Will suit dublin too. I think we are inside thir heads now and they know that next time out will be more intensity than ever. Them are the facts as i see them. Let every other ego say as they wish on tv it only drives us on more. Alan brogan is another man talking about poking bears. lol. Good god almighty. Its unreal stuff. Keep it up lads as i know what ye are really trying to say.
Jaysus, Black Spot, that’s a bit harsh. I know I needed the spuds after the match, I’m sure the lads did as well. According to the Mayo News today, Cillian noted in his speech that Barry Moran had passed up on dessert so that would seem to indicate the the players’ thoughts are on the small margins that you mention!
From all the commentary and analysis I have read I keep coming back to one point. That games was gone from us after 76 mins and Connolly opened the door again.
Whatever about the bad luck of the OGs we have to remember that we got out of jail big time. Even with Kilkenny physically wrestling with him for the ball, Connolly was so rattled that he went for the 10% probability kick. if he leaves the ball to Kilkenny that game is over. over. Even then Dublin could have dragged the Mayo player down at half way and left us with a 60/70M Hail May kick.
if the replay goes down to injury time with Dublin one behind I really hope that someone on the Mayo team takes that black card. Much better a black card and a 70M kick that giving a top forward a chance from 40M.
Watched the game again last night and having read McGuinness in the IT today, he was correct in stating that we didn’t push on when we were in charge in the second half. Dublin didn’t score for more that 15 mins after half time and that was the time that we should have pressed the advantage home.
But by then, Sheamie had tired and we needed new legs in the engine room. We started to drop balls in to the forwards and they were falling short. That gave them possession and a platform which allowed them to get their running game started. Rather than playing long at that stage, we should have brought on runners and ran at them.
If we get them on the back foot the next day, we have to keep the pressure on and not let them regroup.
Too right they deserved the dinner, they are human after all , done them the world of good to meet the fans to and not become recluses and too tied up about the result. It was a positive result not the ultimate result we wanted but on the day a very good result all things considered so get it out of the dsytem, have few spuds, meet their families , good nights sleep then recovery programs, discuss tactics and video analysis tonight etc.
Keegan’s the man for Connelly’s the next day that’s what the neutrals want too see and the gaa know it only to well.two of the best in the game going hammer and tongs for another 70 plus what more could you ask for TV gold.all I seen the last day is the material in our jersey is better quality than there’s,same as the man in it.
I didn’t agree with all of aiden’s decisions but I honestly can’t bring myself to fault him. I’d go to war with him any day. He never takes a step back, is a complete nuisance for opposition and he backs himself.
I wouldn’t go heavy on the PR battle, let the Dublin machine go to work and it will beat itself before the replay.
If every paper is saying keegan should be sent off in the replay the ref can’t then send him off cause everyone will say the paper told him to do it! PR for PRs sake will backfire.
The more people saying Dublin can’t play that bad again the better!!!! I hope the players start to believe it.
We are the best team in the country and we need to smash the door down now, nothing else will do.
No one outside Mayo respects us and they won’t until we are on top of the pile.
I dont think it would have made them recluses to to miss out on dinner. The majority of those players will be back at work this week and they will be meeting plenty of people. Maybe it was the right decision to go to the dinner. However I think people would have understood if the team did not show up.
Roger Milla – nailed it with that post
I hope our bench is used earlier in the replay. It’s hard because we were playing well but I am convinced that a fresh Coen and Conor can be the extra grain of rice in the last 20.
If I was Mayo next week I’d
Get durcan forward as much as possible. Flynn is a spent force and can’t live with him.
Consider leaving D O Connor for impact sub. Small had him in his pocket last day and he hasn’t played well since his injury. Might give him the spark to make the difference.
Bring on C o Shea at some stage…surely the game was crying out for likes of him with 15 to go.
If I were Dublin
Start Paul mannion in favour of KMc who revert to super sub roll.
Start Andrews for brogan who is just not firing but would be inspirational sub to have.
Have a word with Kilkenny to have more faith in his and his mates ability
@Roger Milla. Interesting post, but I can see flaws in it too. Basically, it trims the data and attempts to fit it to an opinion.
Let me explain why I think this.
A sample size of 3 games is too small to extrapolate any meaningful trend from.
No Reasoning for disregarding League games is given. It’s odd, given that the gauge for their playing standard is from a year ago.
Two of the three outcomes are subjective observations:
In the case of #2, Dublin played “below what was expected”.
In the case of #3, qualifying the manner of the result is irrelevant.
So what we have, is:
1.Dublin won two games while playing at a level below where they were last year.
2. Drew one game, while playing considerably below that level.
If we take Jim’s reasoning about reversion to the mean, we can conclude that Dublin will (more than likely) play better. Nothing more.
It in no way forms the basis for the conclusion that Dublin will win. For one, it looks at only one small part of the equation.
It’s like saying the Dublin won’t win because this is an even year, and they haven’t won on an even year since 76.
COY – Dammit! – Tá mé gorm agus tá mé bródúil.
I realise my post might come across as nit picking. In reality I think the team on Sunday have obviously been prepared to the nth degree. The match ups were brilliant and if we can get the extra bit out of Aiden and a few others then I think we will all be enjoying a good night out on the 1st!
Aside from the last-line being somewhat flippant I don’t see why there should be a fuss about Alan Brogan’s article. He’s obviously writing from a Dublin perspective, geared towards a Dublin audience. Should we really be getting worked up about what an ex-Dublin player says? That applies to Whelan also. Yes, the license fee shouldn’t be used to fund the kind of nonsense Brolly et al come out with but we’re too sensitive in Mayo about what the pundits say. It’s opinion, nothing more. I haven’t watched the Sunday Game analysis and I don’t intend to. Why bother? Far more insightful and higher-quality analysis to be found here and in other spots on the web, so that’s what I spend my time reading.
First time commenting since the match but I don’t share the same bullishness that other posters seem to have here. I was really disappointed at the end of the match, for the third year in a row we get a replay when we really should have won. Dublin put in their worst performance of the year and yet only for Connolly putting it wide near the end they would be champions now. I fear that like the drawn semi-final in 2014 we had our chance and let it slip. The two own-goals were unfortunate but they came as a result of Dublin working the ball in and bypassing our defence. I could see Colm Boyle roaring at Kevin McLoughlan at times. Look I know that overall there were heroic performances put in and you can’t fault the players’ determination but some of the mistakes made by some of our more experienced players were almost unforgivable. I can’t recall us making so many unforced errors. I had said to a friend of mine beforehand that our forwards should be able to score enough for us to win but the question was whether the defence would concede little enough not to lose. Instead it turned out to be the opposite. We need more from AOS and Doc and need a plan to score goals, without which I don’t think we’ll win the next day. Keeping the score board ticking over with points is just not going to do it against Dublin, who are always liable to blitz you at any given moment, which they did before half time the last day.
Being optimistic, I am counting on Dublin being tired from a long journey since winning the AI last year, they looked a bit out on their feet the last day. Even with their depth of panel It might be just be enough. We know who hurt us the last day. We have big improvements to make as well. If defence can put in the same shift as the last day and our forwards lift it then are looking at finally ending the famine.
Nice one Jaden ,
I disregarded the league as it just is not championship football. it is no indicator in my opinion and must be discarded.
While last years championship provides a standard ( in fact the last five years of dublin performances show a very high standard) , I think it must also be disregarded as every season brings changes to every team and there have been changes in personnel in Dublin’s case if not management.
you are 100% correct in that my opinion is that Dublin are not as good as last year.
But that is not the opinion I am using to gauge their prospective performance next week. I am simply looking at the three all Ireland series games and contrasting this sample size with Jims.
So as I said I agree with Jims assertion that Dublin will play better , I reject any assertion that it will be significantly better and offer my own opinion which reasons that the mean lies close to the Donegal performance. there is always the chance that the dubs could cut loose and destroy Mayo, but that would be an outlier imo.
of course I dont analyse mayo at all , those lads defy any attempt at analysis 😉
Seamus o,Shea is a worry. We conceded I think three points from unforced errors by Seamus. I know there were a lot of unforced errors in the match but we had more than Dublin. Mind you it was well into the second half that Seamus made the mistakes and that may be down to the fact he was out on his feet and hence the replacement. Parsons may be the man to play at centre half forward and put Aidan at centre field . Take Seamus off earlier next day. Who do we have as a fourth midfielder. Maybe I’m wrong…..
Arent the variables important in statistacial analysis though also?
As the most important variable is the opposition, and the opposition is always different (even if its the same team it is going to be different personnel) you don’t have a clean set of data to draw any conclusions from.
My point being, that any chat before hand from anybody, is complete horseshite as no-one has a fecken clue.
There are so many lads robbing a living at this punditry lark (and I don’t include McGuinness) in that
On a related point, while we all say “why are Brolly, Spillane, O’Rourke” still on the Sunday game? Because they get the audience. There was a complete log jam of people around the tellys in the premium level in Croker yesterday with people from both counties (but particularly Mayo I have to say) hanging onto their every word.
So long as that continues, they will still be box office as far as RTE are concerned.
Replays seldom follow the same pattern as a first game. It can often turn into a grudge
match. There are always leftovers from the previous game. So I hope we keep the focus
and avoid at all costs the àrgy-bargy`. Remember what happened against Meath and
Kerry in replays? Good players getting sent off. Thats something we definitely dont want.
They had to go for the spuds somewhere, Galway hurlers cancelled their banquet after the draw and still lost the replay so say it makes f all odds
Good performance the last day….set down a good marker early on, very well organised, controlled aggression and high work rate were key for me…have to move on now and focus on Saturday week…the foundation of our performance the next day has to be that same work rate and controlled aggression…have to stop them from playing when they have the ball….I do think the replay will take on a life of its own, it will be a very different game…
The only man we failed to pick up was Fenton. Marvellous footballer and was instrumental in a lot of scores. Parsons not the man to mark him. Put Donie Vaughan out centre field?
I am just happy to still be playing ball late in Autumn. Sam will be in Corduff’s bus in two weeks time.
My big fear was coming on here this week and being faced with one of John Cuffes excellent but critical pieces of where are going wrong. When John isn’t writing we seem to be doing well.
Aidan O Shea should be used in the same manner as Murphy is for Donegal. He is too easily marked in at FF where he is surrounded by 3 men. He should not be taking those line balls and driving them miles wide. Seamus is also guilty of wasting good possession. They are good players but need to not give the ball away too easily. I think we need to give the same attention to Finlan as Lee gives to Cononly. Half backs and half forwards to close in on him and halt his runs.As they say in Kerry hammer the hammer. I would like to try Barry Moran on him for at least one half. We are still there and with a little bit of cuteness we will win this. We are not afraid of them and I cannot see us giving away 2 soft goals again. David Clarke is still our best keeper but he also cannot give away possession in his short kick outs.He made some great saves but he needs full concentration and not take chances.
Completely random thought here – but I think there is a curse. It’s the ‘AIB Advert’ curse. Ever since they got these adds, Aidan O’Se, Pail Flynn and James O’Donaghue have gone completely downhill.
Please Lee Keegan – Dont do an AIB add! – the music is great but the it’s just not worth the risk.
Black spot, the lads have too eat. I dont see a problem with them having the banquet (already paid for for one). Number one rule in recovery, food and rest both of which were got in the city west. Straight to the pool the next morning. Better than a three hour bus journey, stopping off in supermacs along the way.
I wouldn’t begrudge the lads a night off at the banquet they deserve a break and it was good for them to see us Mayo fans think the world of them and appreciate their efforts. Please God they will finish the job and bring Sam home I’m convinced they are good enough
I am more confident going into the replay than i was before Sunday. In order to finish the job we need to show more composure especially up front. We showed ferocious intensity on Sunday, particularly in defense. We need to ramp that up even further and give them nothing soft. October 1st 2016 will be Mayo’s day.
As an ex Mayo player said to me after the game you have to respect your fans also, and while many would have understood if the banquet was cancelled, the fans had paid to be there on the basis that the players would be so no harm.
Don’t want to get pedantic, Roger (as I shape up to do so), but the mean and the average aren’t the same thing. The mean is one kind of average (it’s the sum divided by the number of numbers in a data set), the mode (the value that occurs most often) is another and the median (the central point of the data set) another. Boy, do I feel pompous after saying that! I agree, though, with you in questioning what’s the right data set to use in this case and also with Jaden when he says the three matches would be too small a sample size to be drawing any conclusions from. So, the only conclusion I can draw from all that was that Jim was showing off by his reversion to the mean remark and we’re all none the wiser as to whether or not Dublin will play (or will be allowed to play) better in the replay.
Cillian showed some balls in the end to kick the point under enormous pressure, But for all the good he did he was extremely lucky he was still on the pitch for the most blatant black card offense I have ever seen minutes earlier. He just needs to keep his head more as it could have cost him and Mayo in general. In saying that MDMA should have saw the line for his assault on Cillian.
Mayo defensively were outstanding and filled the space excellently with men filtering back, A bit more out of DOC, AOS and COC (who I taught were all pretty average) the next day and ye have a great chance of finally winning a deserved All Ireland.
Best for Mayo last Sunday from a neutral were Clarke, Vaughan and Durkan
In relation to “McGuinness makes the same point too in his column the comeback from five down was great but we needed to keep the foot to the floor” I think the energy used in that 15 minute burst if what could have left the likes of SOS out on his feet? Also, how ofter is it that a team playing Dublin score 5/6/7 without reply.
People always want ‘more’ from players but there is no ‘more’ to give, you can only ask for something different.
It’s unfair to say we need more from AOS, Cillian etc because they were a massive part of the defensive effort too. If you want AOS, Cillian etc to do ‘more’ upfront than they have to do less in defence.
We scored 15 points, which due to the whole teams defensive effort was more than enough to win the match so why do we need to do more upfront?
I think 1-14 will win the replay so I don’t think we need to do more in attack just get the goal that we lacked. (And don’t concede 2!)
The defensive effort has to be even bigger again. We have lost the element of surprise now and Dublin will have a point to prove so this will be the biggest battle of our lives.
Considering the conditions, 15 scores for us should have been enough to win that game. While our defence is lauded, the point is that while both goals ultimately were own goals, our defence was badly exposed on those two occasions and on at least one other.
I cant see us keeping the Dubs from scoring goals, so I expect that they will score around 1-15. We made only one goal scoring opportunity, the one that Moran shot over. We can get 15 scores again, but we will have to score a goal and possibly 2.
I wouldn’t get too immersed in McGuiness’ reference to the ‘mean’ and ‘average’. As WJ said he was being a bit too clever in his analysis. Forget all that talk about data sets and samples etc………just remember that sport is not an exact science. Instead it is full of glorious imponderables….which is the beauty of it!
One of the pluses for the replay will be the atmosphere. An evening kick off under lights will add to the occasion and we’ll have the following day off to celebrate.
WJ have we ever played into October before? The replay in 1996 was played on 29th September.
Jebus H Crisps WJ! Do we owe you a couple of quid for the statistics grind? ?
@six points up
What about Paddy Durkins attempt? Cillian was wide open on his shoulder. The 45 that dropped short and Aiden got the first to, had it been 6 inches any other direction and that greasy ball was in the back of the net, but it landed straight into Cluxtons hands.
That’s right Trevor, it was played on my birthday and it was the worst birthday EVER.
Hells bells Wille Joe, I am just getting flash backs from days of old and my economics lectures in Sligo IT, – I though we cracked the definition of the mean, average and mode down in the cellars bar back then but I am learning a few home truths now!!
Can I ask have Mayo blown their chance against Dublin or is there any hope for them I think they will what do you think.
I think it’s crucial to get the same amount of colour, flags and mayo supporters into croke park on Saturday week. The mayo supporters on the hill reduced the volume of the Dublin chants and I believe it had an effect on the Dublin players on the pitch. The combination of the intensity of the players on the pitch and the noise in the stands made it feel like mayo were playing at home and Dublin aren’t used to feeling like that in croke park – you can see the Dublin supporters on social media are rattled and we have to do the same the next day!
Hon Mayo!
Soft and Craggy and Six Points Up sums it up nicely. Defense was great but still allowed three great goal opportunities. Stop the goal poaching and better tracking of their midfield especially Fenton should get us there. Focus on retaining possession, recycling the ball to our best shooters for attempts that do not fall short. Runners from defense and midfield should only attempt shots from the middle or closer in otherwise lay off. And as so may have pointed out why does AOS continue to take side line kicks, crazy. He should be the target or be used to drag a few defenders out of position creating open space. Need to stop the turnovers late in the game, retaining possession at any cost, replacing SOS before his physical and mental fatigue set in. Mayo can improve more than Dublin. Dublin gave us a second chance in the last few minutes so for once let the opposition pay for it.
That’s a question on many people’s minds Cait. In many respects I think we are back to where we were prior to last Sunday – and the bookies suggest as much with their odds. Dublin are favourites because of their record over the past 5/6 years and particularly because this team has never lost a final. Despite last weekends game, their forwards retain the ability to blitz a defence and as other have alluded to, they could have scored more goals that they two which were registered whereas we really didnt carve out any real chance against Cluxton. Aido’s fisted effort and Andy’s shot which went over were not what you would call a clear goal chance.
Dublin’s forwards will play better the next day. That’s a certainty but I believe Mayo as a defensive unit can be even tighter and in fact will need to be. I dont just mean the back 6, I mean when we dont have the ball. The two goals that Dublin scored originated from lapses in our midfield. Fenton not being tracked being one example.
All the media focus is on how well the Mayo defence played but more so on how poor the Dublin forwards were. We gave away two sloppy goals, flukes or not they were errors by our players. That’s the reality of it and so we need to cut these out the next day.
The overall analysis that Mayo played better than Dublin and is why you are hearing that ‘Mayo blew their chance’ is a lazy opinion and one influenced largely by people’s pre-match thoughts, predictions and perhaps, concerns that Dublinh would win comfortably in the end. The stats suggest that there was in fact very little between the teams – Dublin had 55% possession, defensively coughed up no goal chances and even had one of their defenders as Man of the Match but their forwards never got going. The opposite was the case for Mayo but slightly more balanced. Dublin edged midfield.
Another factor in answering your question is that Mayo never once took the lead in the 2nd half and so were never in a match winning position whereas Dublin had a 5 point lead at the break and lead by 3 with a few mins to go. They also made a mess of the final play which lead to O’Connor’s equaliser, so Dublin had one hand on the trophy but Mayo grabbed their wrist and pulled it away, leaving us with a stalemate.
The fact is that this Mayo team are always close to Dublin in games (bar one league result last year I think) but the dubs are usually the ones to come out on the right side of the result, particularly in recent years and have gone on to win 3 all irelands and a heap of leagues. Mayo havent and as such there are far more question marks over Mayo’s ability to kill a game. This coupled with our history in finals has us at 3/1 with the bookies and so are still massive underdogs.
To sum it up, I dont think Mayo have blown their chance and to suggest that they do undermines and devalues the achievements of this Mayo team since 2011. While Dublin may win the replay, and will no doubt perform better, Mayo are still in with a very decent chance. One that’s better than what the bookies odds would suggest.
From a Mayo perspective they need to put in a team performance that’s better than what they produced on Sunday. I dont think a repeat performance will suffice. There’s absolutely no doubt that Mayo can play better – when you look back at the game there are lots of areas to remedy – fewer costly errors at the back, a bigger performance at midfield and a more cohesive and clinical display when in attack. Any of us who have watched this team closely over the past few years know what they are capable of. More importantly, the team know what they are capable of. On their day they can beat anyone. They have to make sure that they go and do it on October 1st.
Dublin supporters groups are giving out about Mayo supporters getting tickets for the hill and everywhere else in fact. They’ve actually said they’re going to boycott a league game next year! Pathetic, hopefully it’s the Mayo game
They boycott.
Something that hasn’t been mentioned is the treatment of Diarmuid o Connor, I really feel the dubs went out to hurt him early in the game knowing he’s getting over an injury, mcmanamen made no attempt to play the ball when he tried to “tackle” him at the start and lead with his knee.
I really think we need to man mark Fenton, he drags them though Sunday and I believe he’s their best player.
Time for Mayo to kill the game.
Not in modern times, Trevor – but of course our first ever final, one hundred years ago, was played in December 1916. That was against Wexford, when we lost by 3-4 to 1-2 at Croke Park on 17th December that year.
Have you just come around after Sunday or what, Cait? ?
By the way we were 2/1 on paddy power this morning and are 11/4 this evening! They must have heard something we didn’t!
Two lucky OGs , at least one if not two wouldn’t have been a goal anyway even without us playing the ball into the net.
Rarely does any team keep Dublin under 20 points . Never ,not even Kerry can keep them under ten . Had our own goal chance with Moran too.
Not listening to the B.S that we missed the boat bla bla . Just because Dublin are angry doesn’t automatically mean they will be better .
Mayo have consistantly been Dublin’s Achilles heel for the last 4 years . No different this year . Strongly believe this team should seel the deal if a new game plan is formulated with AOS ( needs to be used better to get the best of him ,maybe back to midfield and swapping if not working ) .
I’m going to be cheeky in the bookies and put a decent bit of money on mayo -2 and a little twenty on Mayo -6 , really don’t think its past us to hammer this bunch the next day ,it was only our own OGs that stopped us
Injury update from the Mayo News Sport over on Twitter from tonight’s press night. Stephen Rochford says Alan Dillon is the main injury concern for the replay (bruising I think). Cillian O’Connor (ankle) expected to be fine. Evan Regan is following return-to-play protocols.
Great news that Cillian should be okay, and fingers crossed for Alan that he’ll be fit to make an appearance on the day.
ItsNotJustAjersey – Wouldn’t have been goals only because of Clark’s great saves. Clark proving he’s the best goal keeper in the country. Let’s hope we don’t have to depend on him so much the next day.
on the offensive side of things if we’re
going to go with OShea in the FF line we need BMoran up there too. One going to the left of the square and the other to the right leaving at least 15-20 metres between them forcing McMahon and OSullivan to split the marking job. when the ball is being kicked in Cillian/Andy should be coming steaming down the middle looking for a layoff.
We have never lost an all Ireland Final replay in October on a Saturday that’s my piece of positivity for the day lol my gut feeling all last week that it would be a draw I was saying it all week at work and indeed on Sunday afternoon for anyone that would listen I think we will win the replay we’ll pull away in the last ten minutes but we need to go at Dublin hammer and tongs from the throw in and we need a better display from our midfield. This team has no fear of the dubs that’s always half the battle
Couple of thoughts. The free kick into Rock for 2nd goal was a rehearsed move by dubs looking to exploit Rocks height advantage on Colm Boyle. They will look to repeat this.
Fenton is not an orthodox midfielder, he is more like a running back in NFL terms. We need our most athletic defender to man mark him at expense of an existing midfielder. Stopping Fenton as a link player and him getting ball behind our half back line is crucial.
The dubs full back line has limited cover (Fitzsimmons only), we should aim to have coper and McMahon run ragged so that Gavin has to us up more defensive subs rather than his usual tactic of 4 forwards, 1 midfielder and Fitzsimmons as his sub’s.
I would think a fast corner forward is the player suited to hurt Cian OSullivan, stay close to him but be attacking the space around the D when Mayo get possesion,.O’Sullivan will either have to mark up and leave space behind where Gavin wants him to protect or allow our ‘attacking’ free in the scoring zone. Keep Dublin pushed back!.
Consider AoS as sweeper for height, distribution and tackle breaking role. McLaughlin on Small.
Is it crazy to think about man marking a midfielder ( like Keegan style )? If it’s a valid idea who could track Fenton’s every move ?
No answer to that Càit!
Clarke has proven himself to be the best keeper in Ireland now . The couple of wayward kicks aside he had a serious
Saved a certain point from rock over the crossbar
looks like the dubs are not happy about how many mayo supporters were in the stadium on sunday…… also they seemed to be pretty miffed about how many made it on to The Hill!!
http://www.joe.ie/sport/influential-dublin-gaa-fan-page-threaten-boycott-over-distribution-of-all-ireland-final-tickets/560967
I did’nt realise the importance of supporter’s untill last sunday.player’s went to ground and that rattled the dubs,the mayo fans kept the hype to an all time low,that rattled the dubs.the mayo team did’nt let dublin play and the mayo fans drowned out the dublin fans all day.stephen rochford on sunday night called for the same again,i think we owe it to these lads to respect that and save our voices for saturday week when it matters most.if the dubs want to whine and moan on twitter and facebook let them,the silent treatment is far more effective.
Swahili – Vaughan could mark Fenton.
Aughagower, that really is funny. Its like they think Croke Park is a home venue for them. Same again saturday week.
Obsessed with those P words.Wifey reminds me there’s also Passion,prudence and Parish! But a good neighbour not that into football said…” Time for all to P or Poo now or step away from the Pot”!!
Chicago , I agree . I think Vaughan is more than capable of that. Thank you.